Gold is trading around $4,058.84 within the uptrend channel formed since June 26 and is rebounding after reaching the lower band of the uptrend channel. Therefore, we believe that if XAU/USD consolidates above the 2/8 Murray level in the coming hours, a technical rebound could occur.
Looking at the H4 chart, we can see that gold left a gap between Friday's close and the opening of trading this week. Therefore, we believe that in the coming days, gold could return to the $4,100 and $4,124 levels and close the gap.
On the H4 chart, we can also see that gold has tested the lower band of the uptrend channel; if it consolidates within this channel and above the 2/8 Murray level in the coming hours, the outlook could be positive, and we could expect it to return toward $4,099.
A break above the 21 SMA could signal a positive outlook for gold, and we could expect it to reach the 200 EMA around $4,223 in the coming days—and it might even reach the 3/8 Murray level around $4,218.
Conversely, a drop below $4,050 could lead to a pullback toward the July 8 low or even the psychological level of $4,000.
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