The GBP/USD pair traded lower on Monday, allowing it to consolidate below the two-week ascending trend line. Essentially, only geopolitics could trigger a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, as the U.S. and Iran are again heading toward a long-term conflict instead of negotiations and lasting peace. The price of oil is rising once more, bringing the Federal Reserve closer to tightening monetary policy through inflation indicators. A new inflation report for the U.S. will be released today, but in light of the recent events in the Middle East, no conclusions can be drawn from it. For June, inflation may slow to 3.8%, but if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, it's unlikely that the consumer price index will decrease further. This means that the Fed will indeed have to raise the key rate. Given that the market is highly favorable to the dollar in 2026, a further rise in the American currency is quite possible. Much will depend today on the inflation report and Kevin Warsh's speech.
On the 5-minute timeframe, several trading signals were generated on Monday. The price repeatedly bounced from the 1.3380-1.3386 area from above, then broke through it, only to bounce back from below. Many signals duplicated each other. Therefore, novice traders could have opened a total of two trades. The first was a buy that closed at a loss, while the second was a sell that yielded a small profit.
On the hourly timeframe, the GBP/USD pair may begin a new downward trend. The conflict in the Middle East is on pause, but Iran and the U.S. are speeding toward new escalation and long-term confrontation. Thus, even if the dollar does not show a new trend, it will become much more difficult for the British pound and the euro to rise in the near term, especially if the Fed confirms its readiness to tighten monetary policy and U.S. inflation slows only slightly or not at all.
On Tuesday, novice traders may open short positions if the price consolidates below the 1.3319-1.3331 area or if it bounces from the 1.3380-1.3386 area. A price consolidation above the 1.3380-1.3386 area or a bounce from the 1.3319-1.3331 area would allow for opening long positions.
On the 5-minute timeframe, trading levels to consider are 1.3043, 1.3096-1.3107, 1.3175-1.3180, 1.3259-1.3267, 1.3319-1.3331, 1.3380-1.3386, 1.3456-1.3476, 1.3587-1.3598, 1.3631-1.3641, and 1.3695. On Tuesday, Bank of England Chairman Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak in the UK, while in the U.S., Kevin Warsh will speak and the inflation report will be released. All three events are considered important.
Price levels (areas) of support and resistance are targets when opening long or short positions or sources of signals.
Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – histogram and signal line – is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Important speeches and reports (contained in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or one should exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against preceding movements.
Beginners trading in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing money management are key to long-term success in trading.
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