The GBP/USD currency pair rose sharply on Monday, largely driven by statements from Donald Trump. It should be noted that no significant events or reports were scheduled for this day, and only Trump could shake the markets once more. However, the American president often forgets that we are not in the Stone Age, and any false statement of his is refuted within the next 10 minutes.

Consider this: if negotiations with Iran are indeed taking place, why would Tehran deny their existence? The conclusion? There are no negotiations happening, nor are any expected in the near future, as Iranian officials have clearly stated. They also declared that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked, and Iran will defend all its territories and retaliate for any strikes. In our opinion, this is a total defeat for Trump, but this week we are likely to hear about a complete victory over Iran, the destruction of all nuclear stockpiles, as well as the resolution of another war by the "American peacemaker."

Why is this even needed? Let's remember that elections are approaching in America. Trump's political ratings are plummeting, American voters do not understand the purpose of the war in Iran, and experts unanimously argue that the entire conflict was started just to divert public attention from the scandal related to the Epstein files, in which Trump's name appears thousands of times. The Republican Party's defeat in the elections is practically guaranteed, but there are different kinds of defeats.

Currently, experts are confident that the Republicans will lose the House of Representatives. This is unpleasant, but not critical. Yes, the Republicans will have to negotiate with the Democrats on some issues, but the final word will still remain with them. However, if the war in Iran continues (and it appears that it will, even if Trump declares a total victory), the Republicans might even lose the Senate. This is unlikely, but six years ago, Americans were willing to vote for anyone other than Trump— even Superman.

Now, the US economy is slowing down and growing overall weaker than during Biden's administration. The labor market is faltering, Americans are losing jobs and struggling to find new ones, and the economic growth in 2025 was driven primarily by investments in the AI sector and trade tariffs. By the way, trade tariffs are a separate story. At this point, it's likely that every American household realizes that Trump has effectively robbed them of thousands of dollars by forcing them to pay for imported goods, which was entirely illegal. However, the US government is in no hurry to return any funds. In general, Trump now needs to put on a good face in a bad game and ease the tension surrounding his name. Therefore, the White House leader is trying to make it seem as if the war in the Middle East will end soon. Unfortunately, no one believes him, and they are unlikely to.

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 160 pips, which is considered "high" for this pair. Thus, on Tuesday, March 24, we expect movement within a range limited by levels 1.3242 and 1.3562. The upper linear regression channel has turned sideways, indicating a trend reversal. The CCI indicator has entered the oversold zone twice, further warning of the completion of the correction while forming a "bullish" divergence.

Nearest Support Levels:

S1 – 1.3306

S2 – 1.3184

S3 – 1.3062

Nearest Resistance Levels:

R1 – 1.3428

R2 – 1.3550

R3 – 1.3672

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair has been correcting for a month and a half, but its long-term outlook has not changed. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the US dollar to grow in 2026. As such, long positions targeting 1.3916 and above remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average line, small shorts can be considered targeting 1.3242 and 1.3184 based on geopolitical factors. In recent weeks, almost all news and events have turned against the pound sterling, contributing to the prolonged nature of the correction.

Explanations for Illustrations:

Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same direction, it indicates a strong trend;

The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) determines the short-term trend and direction in which trading should currently be conducted;

Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;

Volatility levels (red lines) indicate a probable price channel in which the pair will trade over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings;

The CCI indicator entering the oversold area (below -250) or the overbought area (above +250) indicates that a trend reversal in the opposite direction is approaching.